Even the repenter "exuberance", Alan Greenspan cache more optimism. As other economists from Wall Street, the "guru" of Goldman Sachs, Jim O'Neill, appointed in September President of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, also estimates that 2011 will be the year of the great "return of America". In addition to the unexpected impact of the tax compromise of 858 billion on consumption, several signals on the front of the domestic demand and industrial orders feed an acceleration of the recovery scenario. Even housing sales have resumed a little force in November. But the scenario is still fragile. Because major questions remain about the impact of the policy of "quantitative stimulus" mass of the Federal Reserve (Fed), the high level of unemployment which could stay around 9 at the end of 2011 and the inflation of the local ("municipal bonds") debt.
"The US economy unquestionably resumed the momentum." "Fourth-quarter growth rate could be 3.5 or more", the former President of the Fed, Alan Greenspan has launched mid-December. Without excluding a debt crisis of the bond if nothing is done on the front of the deficit, he anticipates a decline in unemployment (9.8 in November) early next year. It is the only one to build on a significant acceleration of the recovery, with a possible increase of 20 on the stock market. Many Wall Street economists, such as Jan Hatzius Goldman Sachs or Mark Zandi of Moody's, provide for a net acceleration in the last quarter and a level of "self-sufficient" growth in 2011.
Controversial stimulus policy
Jim O'Neill, a growth rate of 3.4 in 2011 would be "sufficiently robust to result in a decline in unemployment which, if proven, would mean that the worst of the social consequences of the credit crisis should move away." If the housing market remains the main brake recovery, consumption increased by 2.4 annual rate in the third quarter, or his best score since the first quarter of 2007. The consumption increased by 0.4 in November for the fifth straight month and industrial orders (excluding automobile) grew by 2.4.
The foreseeable impact of tax breaks and voted social contributions decreased in extremis the Congress led Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to revise their growth forecasts for 2011 to increase to 4. Despite these positive signs, the official announcement of a review of 2.5 to 2.6 of the GDP growth in the third quarter by the Department of Commerce has however disappointed analysts.
Most importantly, the question of the effectiveness of the controversial policy of quantitative stimulus (called "qe2") of the Fed opted for a new round of purchases of securities Treasury Board 600 billion in early November, whole rest in the eyes of some observers. It may be a risky bet. According to Nouriel Roubini, if growth were to be less than 3 in 2011, the Fed could have great difficulties to continue in this way. "This policy looks like a leak in front." "Unless you have an exquisite sense of the"timing", the monetary stimulus might end up scaring the holders of $ and Eta bonds t", believes the New York Fund Manager Jean-Marie Eveillard (First Eagle).
Despite these uncertainties, Barack Obama was able to fly to Hawaii pride to have its tax compromise, despite the reluctance of his own party. But he expects a dialogue "muscular" on spending cuts with the new Republican majority in the House.
The Sun is represented as a yellow thistleThe Group wants to create a peak by region by 2010Yesterday at Matignon is kept of any final statementOf course this has not erased the crisis21 its highest daily drop since October 2009The Socialist party denounced a regime crisisBut of course it all depends on the selected choiceIn other words European patent still walking on one legHe was reappointed to his post a week laterIn any case calls to the strike have multiplied
